Data-Driven Business Evolution: The SaaSpocalypse Is Over. We Told You.
Week of May 25 – May 31, 2026
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Please before diving in, read this disclaimer.
Welcome to the FCC Weekly Data Wrap Up
Every Sunday, we track what actually changed across our portfolio and what it does to each company’s Future Cognitive Capital score. One real signal can move a thesis. Most “news” is noise. Our job is to separate the two, then update the scoreboard.
Performance of the portfolio: +425.44%% since January 2024.
The SaaSpocalypse Is Over. We Told You.
— Presented by Crystal.
Remember March?
Software stocks were in freefall. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF was down 26% for the year. Anthropic unveiled Claude Mythos and the market concluded that AI would destroy every enterprise software company in existence. Michael Burry shorted Palantir and said it was worth less than $50. CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Okta, Cloudflare all bled between 5% and 9% in single sessions. “SaaSpocalypse” was the word of the quarter.
We wrote, on April 12:
“The model layer is commoditising, but the data layer, the decision layer, the commerce layer, and the governance layer are compounding. Our portfolio sits below the model layer by design.”
We wrote, on April 19:
“The market is pricing growth rates. It should be pricing compounding architectures.”
We wrote, on May 10:
“Ten companies. Ten beats. Zero misses.”
This week, the market caught up. One word to describe what we just done:
Expertise and patience: track record.
Track record
The iShares software ETF closed May up 21%, its best monthly performance since October 2001. Snowflake surged 50% in four trading sessions after announcing a $6 billion AWS infrastructure deal and reporting a revenue beat. Okta jumped 30% on Friday to a 52-week high. Palantir rallied 9% on Thursday, its best single day in a year, closing at $156.
Emerald made a fabulous call about Snowflake just before earnings, outside of FCC, on his own publication, but it’s still worth noting as we agreed at the time.
The software sector is now down only 3.8% for 2026, after being down 26% as recently as April. The Nasdaq, by comparison, is up 18%.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives said it plainly: Anthropic’s growth is “just the tip of the spear” for the AI rally. The market has finally understood what we have been writing since March: AI doesn’t destroy software companies that sit below the model layer. It accelerates them.
There is no company-specific news to report this week, no earnings, no product launches, no contract announcements either. What happened instead was more important: the market structure shifted, the fear trade unwound and so, the thesis trade began.
If you want to understand what the software reversal means for the portfolio, why Snowflake’s $6B AWS deal validates our Amazon thesis, and how the Middle East ceasefire extension changes the risk calculus, read on.
The rest of this edition is for paid subscribers.
What the Software Reversal Means for the Portfolio
No individual company in the portfolio made news this week. But the market made news about all of them…