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Please before diving in, read this disclaimer.
Welcome to the FCC Weekly Data Wrap Up
Every Sunday, we track what actually changed across our portfolio and what it does to each company’s Future Cognitive Capital score. One real signal can move a thesis. Most “news” is noise. Our job is to separate the two, then update the scoreboard.
A note before we start: we have a new addition to the portfolio. More about it below. Also since it’s first edition, the portfolio is up +420%. No cherry picking, everything is public through our Excel dashboard, dated.
Rule of 40 at 145. Read That Again.
— Presented by Crystal.
Three portfolio companies reported this week. Three beats. Three different stories about what it means to compound data at scale. Let’s look at Palantir.
Palantir delivered the single most definitive earnings print in the company’s public history. Revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, the fastest growth since the 2020 direct listing. U.S. revenue crossed $1.28 billion, up 104%, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 133% to $595 million. Rule of 40 score: 145%. Adjusted operating margin: 60%. Net income quadrupled. Cash on hand: $8 billion. Full-year guidance raised to $7.65 billion, crushing the $7.18 billion consensus. Alex Karp, characteristically modest, told shareholders: “We have shattered consensus expectations.”
The stock fell 7%.
Another company cleared $100 billion in GMV in a single quarter for the first time. Revenue of $3.17 billion, up 34%. EPS of $0.45, nearly double the $0.24 consensus. Free cash flow margins at 15%. President Harley Finkelstein said Shopify has entered the AI era with “two decades of commerce intelligence.”
The stock fell 8%.
Then the last one beat on revenue ($2.7 billion, up 18%), crushed adjusted EBITDA estimates ($519 million, up 24%), reported $1.7 billion in quarterly free cash flow, raised full-year guidance, and saw app bookings accelerate 22% year over year. CEO teased a major product launch on May 20.
The EPS missed by three cents. The stock went sideways…
We’ve said it before. We’ll say it again. The market prices narratives. We price data compounding. This week, the data won. The narratives haven’t caught up yet.
If you want to understand why Palantir’s 133% U.S. commercial growth destroys the Burry thesis, why company #10’s $100B GMV quarter changes the agentic commerce calculus, and what company #7’s May 20 launch could mean for the 800-signal ranking model, read on…
The rest of this edition is for paid subscribers.